NFL MVP odds 2022: Favorites, sleepers to win Most Valuable Player

Sports

The NFL’s MVP award has become synonymous with the league’s best quarterback over the past decade. The previous nine MVP award winners all played QB, with Minnesota’s Adrian Peterson serving as the last non-QB to win the award in 2012. As such, it’s no surprise that QBs like Josh Allen, Justin Herbert, and Patrick Mahomes had the shortest preseason odds to win the 2022 NFL MVP. 

Through the first week of the season, the top-15 players in the 2022 MVP odds are all quarterbacks. It’s becoming more difficult for oddsmakers and the betting public to make a case for a non-QB to win the award. There are some decent sleeper/long-shot non-QB candidates (Justin Jefferson, Derrick Henry, Christian McCaffrey), but your money is almost always better spent on a signal-caller.

When Adrian Peterson won the award in ’12, he had 2,097 rushing yards on 348 carries and 12 touchdowns. That year, Peterson beat out Peyton Manning, who threw for 4,659 yards, 37 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions. As you can see, for a non-QB to win the league’s MVP, they have to do something incredible. Peterson was also the last winner to be on a team that didn’t finish first or second in its conference. Clearly, winning can trump stats in this QB-dominant era. 

Last season, there was a slight chance that a non-QB could’ve won the award, as Cooper Kupp and Jonathan Taylor had outstanding seasons for their respective teams. Kupp finished third in the voting behind Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers after winning the league’s triple-crown for receiving with 145 receptions for 1,947 yards and 16 touchdowns. Taylor did not finish in the top three of voting but had an outstanding season for a running back with 2,171 total yards and 20 total TDs on 372 touches, but it still wasn’t enough to even sniff the trophy.

Heading into Week 3 of the regular season, the top-three favorites to win the league’s MVP have changed quite a bit. Last week, Mahomes was the favorite to win at +450, but that moniker now goes to Josh Allen. The Bills’ star quarterback is now the favorite to win the award at +300. Allen’s odds heading into Week 2 were +550, but he had an impressive performance on Monday Night Football (317 passing yards and four touchdowns).

Mahomes has second-best odds at +450, but Jalen Hurts moved up into the third spot (+800) after what he did on Monday Night Football against Minnesota. Hurts had 14/1 odds heading into Week 2 but improved those odds with 390 yards of total offense and three total touchdowns.

Hurts wasn’t the only quarterback who saw his odds improve after Week 2 as Tua Tagovailoa went from +4000 to +1800. Tagovailoa outdueled Lamar Jackson in a high-scoring affair that saw the Dolphins win 42-38. Tagovailoa threw for 469 yards, six touchdowns, and only two interceptions. He will have a chance to improve his MVP odds again on Sunday against Allen and the Bills.

For non-QBs, Jefferson and Taylor have the shortest odds to win MVP (+6000) after quiet performances in Week 2. Titans’ RB Derrick Henry saw his odds drop from 60/1 to 80/1 (+8000) after rushing for 25 yards on 13 carries and a touchdown in Week 2. However, Bills WR Stefon Diggs was one of the notable longshot risers as his odds moved from +20000 to +10000. Diggs went off against the Titans for three touchdowns in Week 2 and could be due for another big week against the Dolphins’ secondary.

Below, we’ll provide a snapshot of where the MVP odds stand and who provides the most value heading into Week 3.

All odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook

Player Odds
Josh Allen +300
Patrick Mahomes +450
Jalen Hurts +800
Justin Herbert +1000
Lamar Jackson +1200
Tua Tagovailoa +1800
Aaron Rodgers +1800
Tom Brady +2200
Joe Burrow +2500
Kyler Murray +3000
Matthew Stafford +3500
Derek Carr +4000
Kirk Cousins +5000
Russell Wilson +6000
Justin Jefferson +6000
Jonathan Taylor +6000
Jameis Winston +8000
Cooper Kupp +8000
Derrick Henry +8000
Trevor Lawrence +10000
Mac Jones +10000
Stefon Diggs +10000
Matt Ryan +10000
Jimmy Garoppolo +10000
Deshaun Watson +15000
Zach Wilson +15000
Christian McCaffrey +15000
Daniel Jones +15000
Deebo Samuel +15000
Aaron Donald +15000
Davante Adams +15000
Jared Goff +15000
Ryan Tannehill +15000
Saquon Barkley +15000
Ja’Marr Chase +15000
Carson Wentz +20000
Travis Kelce +20000
Justin Fields +20000
Myles Garrett +25000
Nick Chubb +25000
Dalvin Cook +25000
Baker Mayfield +25000
Ezekiel Elliott +30000
Jaylen Waddle +30000
Keenan Allen +30000
AJ Brown +30000
Nick Bosa +30000
Darren Waller +30000
J.J. Watt +30000
Kyle Pitts +30000
D’Andre Swift +30000
Amari Cooper +30000
Joe Mixon +30000
Aaron Jones +30000
Tyreek Hill +30000
Leonard Fournette +30000
Chase Young +30000
Austin Ekeler +30000
Alvin Kamara +30000
Mike Evans +30000
Jerry Jeudy +30000
Joey Bosa +30000
CeeDee Lamb +30000
Micah Parsons +30000
Khalil Mack +30000
Deandre Hopkins +30000
Teddy Bridgewater +30000
Von Miller +50000
Marquise Brown +50000
Shaquille Leonard +50000
Clyde Edwards-Helaire +50000
Michael Thomas +50000
Odell Beckham Jr +50000
Melvin Gordon +50000
George Kittle +50000
Terry McLaurin +50000
Tony Pollard +50000
Bradley Chubb +50000
Miles Sanders +50000
DeVonta Smith +50000
Courtland Sutton +50000
Jarvis Landry +50000
Chris Godwin +50000
Kenny Golladay +50000
Taylor Heinicke +50000
Najee Harris +50000
Diontae Johnson +50000
Elijah Mitchell +50000
Josh Jacobs +50000
D.J. Moore +50000
Michael Pittman Jr +50000
Cam Akers +50000
T.J. Watt +50000
James Robinson +50000
Antonio Gibson +50000
JK Dobbins +50000
Sam Darnold +50000
DK Metcalf +50000

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