Aaron Rodgers wasn’t expected to be a high-end fantasy football QB1 again in 2023, but when the Jets made him their starting quarterback, there was more upside connected to their offensive skill players.
Although Dalvin Cook got some RB2 interest after his summer signing and Allen Lazard was a popular deep sleeper WR given his Packers history with Rodgers, there’s no doubt that the highest expectations for second-year weapons Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall.
Wilson was drafted as a top-12 receiver in most leagues, making him a WR1. Hall was seen as an RB2, despite the presence of Cook, because of his potential explosive return from a torn ACL.
With Rodgers now gone, giving way to Zach Wilson at QB (for now), what does mean for the updated fantasy outlooks for Garrett Wilson and Hall? Here’s breaking down the impact:
Garrett Wilson’s fantasy football outlook without Aaron Rodgers
Wilson finished as WR19 overall in half-point PPR leagues during his stellar rookie campaign. In terms of fantasy points per game, Wilson was only WR31. Wilson saw 147 targets from three starting quarterbacks, turning them into 83 catches, 1,103 yards, and four TDs.
In addition to Wilson improving his 56.5-percent catch rate, there were high hopes for his scoring to go way up with Rodgers. Pushing toward 100 catches and 10 scores would definitely put him into WR1 territory.
Although Wilson scored on a dazzling play on a pass from Zach Wilson in Week 1, he caught all five of his targets for just 34 yards (6.8 yards per reception). He averaged 13.3 last season.
It’s hard to project Wilson finishing in the top 12 now, but a top-20 finish is definitely in reach should he get the high-leverage targets as a threat to score every week. The catch and yardage totals may be curbed, as the Jets will likely lean on the run more, but Wilson will still be an every-week fantasy asset. Expect WR2 numbers and a top-20 finish, both in overall and average scoring. This potential makes Wilson a buy-low candidate if his owners are overly down on him following Rodgers’ injury.
Breece Hall’s fantasy football outlook without Aaron Rodgers
Hall was the RB7 in terms of average scoring as a rookie in half-point PPR leagues, but he finished as the overall RB42 after playing just seven games.
Hall showed no ill effects of his torn ACL on Monday night, exploding for 127 rushing yards on just 10 carries. That included an 83-yard burst to help Zach Wilson, and when Rodgers was still in, Hall rumbled to 26 yards on the Jets’ first offensive play. He also caught one-of-two targets for an additional 20 yards.
While Hall turned 11 touches into 147 scrimmage yards, Cook got more volume out of the gate with 16 touches. He looked pedestrian, however, and managed to eke out 58 scrimmage yards, less than half of Hall’s total.
Keep in mind the Jets planned to bring Hall along slowly so as not to overwork him early. They had to be thrilled to see him back at the big-play speed he showed as a rookie. Volume and opportunity be damned — Hall doesn’t need a heavy workload to put up pleasing fantasy numbers because of his versatility and big-play ability. The TDs are also bound to come, too, as it should be a race between him and Garrett Wilson to see who gets in the end zone most for the Jets in 2023.
The Jets were looking at a massive rookie year from Hall, just like they got from Wilson and cornerback Sauce Gardner. He seems ready to pick up where he left off, and his key touches should go up. While Wilson gets a downgrade, Hall looks like a draft steal of an RB1, especially in PPR-leaning leagues. Buy low if you can.